New UCG President...

As a member of the United Church of God, I figured it would be good to post my odds for the election of the new UCG president, based on the current five candidates for the job. The name, odds, and a short analysis of each candidate follow:

Jim Franks
Favorite: 3:1 odds
The favorite even before the official name was listed, Jim Franks is a politico whose savvy has attracted a great deal of support from the United Home Office elites. His work in researching CoG history (which he shares with the CoG7), as well as his excellent instruction at ABC (which I know from personal experience) give him major credibility both in outreach with related organizations as well as the ability to instruct members. However, given the support he has from such luminaries as RP, it is doubtful that he will serve to make the necessary reforms UCG needs to avoid falling into the WCG government trap.

Clyde Kilough
Dark Horse: 5:1 odds
Like Jim Franks, Clyde Kilough is a politically savvy and well-connected HO insider. A genuinely nice man, he would seem to be best suited for behind the scenes work (which he has done as the current Chairman of the CoE) due to his noteworthy lack of inspirational speaking style. He has an enthusiastic supporting lobby (especially in Northern California, where he pastors) and is a good judge of character. Like Jim Franks, though, it would appear that Mr. Kilough would represent a rather conservative choice, even if a compassionate conservative one.

Les McCullough
Dark Horse: 5:1 odds
Having already served in this office, without incident and in a difficult time (similar to that right now), he has already shown his bona fides and his capability for the office. Perhaps the most capable President that UCG has had thus far, he would represent a rather moderate choice, neither pressing for reforms nor acceeding to the demands for further centralization. As a peacemaker, he would present a compromise (and a decent one) between the left and right of UCG. However, the fact that he previously served would make him less desirable, as UCG has made a point of refusing to continue even capable leaders in this post to prevent a strongman. Thankfully, Mr. McCullough shows no sign of being a dictatorial strong man (a la Hulme). His election as President would also allow him another chance of keeping his promise to step down from the CoE if elected.

Aaron Dean
Longshot: 10:1 odds
Aaron Dean is somewhat of a longshot due to his status as an unpaid elder (he has refused, out of principle, to receive a salary from HO). Mr. Dean, however, has a lot going for him. He appeals to two dramatically opposed groups: disaffected liberals who seek sweeping reforms and those who want to emphasize the connection with HWA (often highly conservative). Where the real Aaron Dean stands I do not pretend to know, but his political survival skills were no doubt honed by his time as an understudy to Stanley Rader. He would most likely, in the climate of United, represent the reformers (at least we can hope so), but what he did in power would be difficult to tell in advance.

Bill Bradford
Longshot: 10:1 odds
Possibly the upset choice of the bunch, Bill Bradford comes from the Australian work as the representative of the least HO submissive of the national churches. It would be a very big upset for him to be chosen as president, as he would be most likely to receive his support from the reforming wing of UCG. His election would signify a major defeat for certain centralizing HO staff. Little more can be said about him, as he does not have the same kind of historical baggage or known political experience as most of the other choices. His inclusion is a surprise, and perhaps represents some of the international areas seeking a leader of their own.